Weather Bureau Forecast A Summer Of Increased Flooding, Tropical Cyclones

Six weeks out from summer and the weather bureau's long-range forecast warns of another severe weather season.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued its long-range forecast on Monday, and while severe weather can occur at any time of the year, October to April is the peak time for flooding, tropical cyclones, heatwaves, bushfires, and severe thunderstorms. 

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BOM’s 2022-23 long-range forecast includes:

• An increased risk of an above average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows
• An increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia  
• Normal bushfire potential in eastern states, but an elevated risk of grass fire in southern Australia 
• Increased risk of prolonged heatwaves in southern areas with higher humidity  
• Normal risk of severe thunderstorms, but with possible increase in risk of thunderstorm asthma events if conditions are dry in late spring and early summer.

The bureau has advised that northern and eastern Australia will see an increased risk of widespread and prolonged riverine flooding, with severe coastal flooding likely if offshore storms are also around at these times. 

While throughout the warmer months, northern New South Wales, southern Queensland, inland Western Australia, and the tropics could see severe thunderstorms leading to flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes.  

In terms of fire danger, Australia’s above-average rainfall over winter has led to good grass and vegetation growth in many areas, which could increase fire danger during any period of hot and dry weather over summer.  

While the long-term warming trend, even in a wet summer, means some places will experience heatwaves which may last longer, be warmer overnight and be more humid. 

For more information head to the Bureau's Know Your Weather, Know Your Risk webpage: http://www.bom.gov.au/knowyourweather/

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