New Covid Modelling Delivers Manageable Outlook For SA

New modelling by the Doherty Institute delivers a 'manageable' outlook for South Australia once borders reopen.

The state’s chief public health officer, Professor Nicola Spurrier has revealed that the vaccines are far "more effective" than initially conceived.

“If you get infected as a fully vaccinated person, you are much less likely to go to hospital, you are much less likely to have any symptoms, you’re much less likely to pass it on to somebody,” she said. 

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Looking at projected fatalities and hospital admissions over a 300-hundred-day period from November 23, the most moderate scenario modelling forecasts the chance of an outbreak averaging more than 100 daily cases over any three-day period is estimated at 27 per cent.

The Covid modelling recommends the upkeep of current social restrictions will be key to minimising pressure on the state's health system, with mask mandates to potentially determine the death toll according to health experts, with around a dozen people expected to lose their lives over the period.

Hospital bed occupancy is expected to peak at 36, under the first moderate scenario posed by the modelling, with ICU bed occupancy predicted at nine in the event of an outbreak.

"In the event of an outbreak, this scenario is estimated to be manageable with respect to hospital capacity," it states.

Premier Steven Marshall said the report showed that "scenario one is the safest way forward".

"South Australia would be able to safely manage hospital and ICU demand from COVID-19 infections generated in the community as long as there are high testing rates, contact tracing is maintained, and cases and their close contacts are quarantined," Mr Marshall said

Looking further ahead, the Premier declared statewide lockdowns will be a thing of the past once the state reached the 80 per cent milestone.

“What people in South Australia wanted to know is when can we have that threat removed. The answer is November 23,” he said. “At the same time, we’ll remove the threat of whole-of-state lockouts. So, we’re moving to a more targeted approach.”

It comes as a vaccine mandate for SA Health staff kicks off Monday with workers required to have received at least one dose or a Covid vaccine or be stood down.

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