Good news for us here in the Far North.
Fewer number of tropical cyclones are expected in the Australian region for the 2018–19 cyclone season (November–April)
The possible development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean and near average ocean temperatures to the north and east of Australia have influenced this year’s tropical cyclone outlook.
On average, there are 10 to 13 tropical cyclones each season in the Australian region, four of which typically cross the coast.
El Niño typically reduces the number of coastal crossings, but at least one tropical cyclone has crossed the Australian coast each season since reliable records began in the 1970s. During El Niño years, the first tropical cyclone to cross the coast is typically during the second week of January.
This is generally later than seasons which are ENSO-neutral when the first cyclone landfall typically occurs in late December. Cyclone formation is rarely spread evenly throughout the season; often quiet periods are followed by bursts of activity. Tropical lows that do not intensify into cyclones, or lows that are the remnants of older cyclones, can still cause widespread rainfall and dangerous flooding.
These impacts can extend beyond the tropics into southern areas of the country.
Even though the outlook is good you still need to have a cyclone plan in place!